FOX 5 Poll: Senate runoffs extremely tight, Gov. Kemp's approval rating slips

A new exclusive InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta Poll released on Tuesday takes a look at Georgia’s Senate races, Gov. Brian Kemp's approval rating, and whether Georgians believe the last election was fair. The poll, that surveyed 800 registered likely voters in Georgia, shows just how competitive Georgia has become.

Georgia faces runoffs for both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, and the outcome will determine the balance of power in the Senate next year.

Here is the breakdown of the poll:

  • Rev. Raphael Warnock (D): 49%
  • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 48%
  • Undecided: 3%
  • Sen. David Perdue (R): 49%
  • Jon Ossoff (D): 49%
  • Undecided: 2%

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said, “The challenge for the two Republicans will be how to hold on to the over ten percent level of support they have from African American voters, while at the same time trying to convert suburban Atlanta white voters who have drifted away from the GOP.”

Towery said the current ad campaign by Sen. Loeffler against Rev. Warnock may have opened a can of worms that could lead to an erosion of that fragile level of support.

“The two Republican campaigns have decided to run in tandem and as a result, any mistake by one campaign may impact both,” Towery said. “Warnock will be the centerpiece of attempting to drive African American vote higher than it was in the General Election, which is essential for a win for both Ossoff and him.”

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“At this time I would say that the Republican candidates might both be slight underdogs as of now,” Towery said. “That will come as a shock to people who have not followed the shift in demographics and voting patterns in Georgia. Either race can be won by either party’s nominee.”

“Times have changed in Georgia where runoffs for Republicans were considered a lock for them. That is clearly no longer the case,” said former pollster for the Reagan White House Craig Keshishian, who has joined the InsiderAdvantage team.

The poll also took a look at Gov. Brian Kemp’s current approval rating which appears to have dropped significantly. It shows that only 37% of the likely voters surveyed approved of the job the governor was doing during his time in office with 44% disapproving and 19% saying they were not sure.

  • Approve: 37%
  • Disapprove: 44%
  • Undecided: 19%

Towery said, “The current war between Trump supporters and Governor Brian Kemp over Kemp’s lack of vocal response to perceived election issues is not only impacting Kemp’s approval ratings but the Republican voter intensity and interest in the Senate runoff as of now. Donald Trump is uniquely popular with a vast majority of Georgia Republicans and it will require Trump to fire up the GOP voters."

The margin of error for the poll is 3.5%.