Atlanta forecast: Chilly, stormy weekend; first freeze next week
Thursday night forecast
Clear and cool tonight with lows in the 40s and around 50 in the city. Friday will start sunny before clouds build later in the day, with highs in the 70s. Showers and storms are likely early Saturday, followed by scattered rain through the day and highs still in the 70s. Much colder air moves in early next week. Here’s the forecast breakdown.
ATLANTA - Metro Atlanta’s string of warm November afternoons will soon come to an abrupt end. After highs in the 70s on Thursday and Friday, storms are set to move in this weekend, followed by a dramatic drop in temperatures next week.
FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Laurann Robinson says the shift will be hard to miss. "We’re going from middle 70s today and yesterday and even tomorrow to highs in the 40s in the next few days," Robinson said. "We’re just gonna pass right through fall. We’re going from summer-like weather to winter weather."
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Chilly, stormy weekend for Atlanta
What we know:
A high-pressure system keeping skies sunny and dry through Friday morning will give way to a cold front moving in from the northwest. That front will bring rounds of rain and a few thunderstorms beginning Friday night and continuing through Saturday.
On Friday, the western half of north Georgia will be under a marginal, or level one out of five, risk for severe storms. By Saturday, that risk expands to include all of north Georgia. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center says isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Saturday evening and night, with damaging winds or small hail possible.
Rain totals will be highest north of Interstate 20, where some spots could see one to two inches of rainfall. Most areas south of the interstate will only get light, scattered showers.
Georgia's temperature tumble
By the numbers:
Once the front clears the state, colder air quickly follows. Robinson says "Monday and Tuesday morning it’s gonna be dangerously cold out there with those temperatures below freezing. You want to make sure you’re bundled up and watch for things like frostbite on the exposed skin."
Atlanta area forecast
- Friday: Mostly sunny, high 74.
- Friday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, low 60.
- Saturday: A 30% chance of afternoon showers and storms, high 74.
- Saturday night: More showers possible overnight, low 59.
- Sunday: Partly sunny, high 67, then turning sharply colder by nightfall with lows around 33.
- Monday: Sunny but cold, high 44, low 27.
- Veterans Day: Sunny, high 51.
North Georgia mountain forecast
- Friday: Mostly sunny, high 64.
- Friday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, low 54.
- Saturday: Scattered showers and storms, high 66.
- Saturday night: More rain and a few storms likely, low 51.
- Sunday: Partly sunny, high 57, then dropping to 26 overnight with a chance of light rain or snow showers.
- Monday: Mostly sunny, high 34, low 21.
- Veterans Day: Sunny, high 44.
Temperatures across both Atlanta and the mountains will remain well below normal through mid-week, marking the season’s first widespread freeze for much of north Georgia.
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Did someone say snow? Snow, we didn't!
Dig deeper:
Don't believe the hype based on one image of one computer model!
Here’s the deal: after days of above-average temperatures, a major cold snap is on the way. FOX 5 Storm Team chief meteorologist David Chandley says a big dip in the jet stream will deliver the coldest air since last February, but it won’t bring snow for most of Georgia.
Cold, dry air tends to wring out any remaining moisture, so a few flurries could appear over the highest North Georgia peaks Monday. However, no accumulation or travel issues are expected. Only one long-range model hints at snow, and forecasters say that type of precipitation is not in the forecast.
So, enjoy these last golden afternoons, keep the rain gear handy for the weekend, and get those heavy coats ready. Winter’s first real bite is on the way.
A model versus forecast: What's the difference?
Big picture view:
Meteorologists use computer simulations known as weather models to predict how the atmosphere behaves, and those model outputs are then interpreted and turned into weather forecasts for the public. The two are related, but they are not the same thing.
Weather models are mathematical representations of the atmosphere. They take current observations from satellites, weather balloons, buoys and ground stations and compute how variables like temperature, pressure, wind and moisture will evolve. According to the National Weather Service, such models "solve for a large number of complex equations for various locations at both the surface, and different heights (layers) of the atmosphere." Models differ by their resolution, domain, time-span and physical assumptions.
Weather forecasts are a human-interpreted product based on one or more model outputs, sometimes combined with local expertise and observational data.
The image above is a model showing only one possibility. It is not the forecast.
The Source: This article is based on original forecasting by the FOX 5 Storm Team. Additional details come from the National Weather Service. FOX Weather contributed to this article. This article has been frequently updated to provide the latest forecast and information you need to know.