Atlanta weather: Severe storm threat overnight with damaging winds, large hail
Wednesday afternoon forecast
Highs of 82 degrees have tied local records, but a "punishing" line of storms is moving in at midnight. We are tracking potential 60 mph gusts and golf-ball-sized hail as the system pushes through the Atlanta metro area during the early morning commute.
ATLANTA - A powerful cold front is set to sweep through Georgia tonight, bringing a line of potentially severe storms that will transition into a dramatic temperature drop by Thursday afternoon.
The FOX 5 Storm Team is tracking the risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes as the system moves through during the "darkness of night."
Wind, hail, and heavy rain overnight
What they're saying:
A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in effect for far northwest and western Georgia. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) encompasses the majority of metro Atlanta and Central Georgia.
The FOX 5 Atlanta Storm Team says the system could bring damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail up to one inch in diameter and the possibility of a brief spin-up tornado.
The window for severe weather runs from about 10 p.m. through 7 a.m. Thursday as storms track across the state from northwest Georgia toward the Athens area and Lake Sinclair.
The strongest storms are expected to move through the metro Atlanta area around midnight.
Not everyone will see storms during that entire time period, but the system will take several hours to move across the region.
In addition to the risk of strong storms, heavy rain could fall across parts of the region, potentially creating a wet Thursday morning commute.
‘During the darkness of night’
What they're saying:
The FOX 5 Storm Team is tracking a "robust line" of storms currently stretching from Tennessee down to the Mississippi River Delta. FOX 5 Storm Team Chief Meteorologist David Chandley noted that today’s high of 82 degrees tied the record set in 1990, providing the "pipe and conducive" atmosphere for storm development.
"It’s coming through during the darkness of night," said FOX 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Jonathan Stacey. "We basically lose the daytime heating... however, if that updraft really builds, that means we could possibly get some spin in the air."
The team emphasizes that while the severe threat diminishes as temperatures drop into the 40s and 50s behind the rain, the heavy rain threat remains.
"Told you the cold air was not done," David Chandley said. "And it’s going to be rolling on in here... Sunday, man, we got a big time cold snap next week."
When is storms rolling in?
Timeline:
The FOX 5 Storm Team expects the following timing for the arrival of the storm line and subsequent clearing:
- 6 p.m. – 8 p.m. Tonight: Storms begin moving into Northwest Georgia (Rome, Floyd County).
- Midnight – 2 a.m. Thursday: Heavy moderate downpours and lightning reach the I-59 and I-75 corridors; potential for discrete cells ahead of the main line.
- 3 a.m. – 5 a.m. Thursday: The line moves through the Metro Atlanta area, with the south side expected to see the "brunt" of the leading edge.
- 7 a.m. – 9 a.m. Thursday: Lingering showers for eastern neighborhoods and Middle Georgia; conditions begin to dry out for the morning commute.
- Thursday Afternoon: Skies clear and the sun returns, though conditions will remain breezy and noticeably cooler.
Powerful cold front moves through
Big picture view:
The FOX 5 Storm Team attributes this weather event to a strong cold front supported by a shortwave traversing the northern Gulf. This setup provides enough shear to favor embedded spin-up tornadoes within the line. While instability is limited, it is sufficient to maintain a line of storms capable of producing damaging winds. Behind the front, a significant airmass change will occur as high pressure builds in for the weekend.
What can you expect overnight?
Local perspective:
Rainfall totals are expected to be beneficial, as the region remains slightly "shy" for the yearly average. Most neighborhoods will see between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain, with isolated downpours reaching over an inch. While the tornado risk is low, the FOX 5 Storm Team warns of damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, particularly in border counties from Dade to Troup. In the mountains, temperatures will drop to near freezing (31°F) by Thursday night.
What could happen with this front?
Why you should care:
The primary concerns for residents involve the timing of the storms during the overnight hours when most people are asleep. Potential impacts include:
- Power Outages: Strong wind gusts may down power lines.
- Downed Trees: Saturated soil and high winds increase the risk of falling timber.
- Travel Hazards: The tail end of the system will likely make for a "messy commute" Thursday morning, followed by gusty north winds up to 30 mph.
7-day forecast
By the numbers:
Metro Atlanta Seven-Day Forecast:
- Wednesday Night: 80% chance of storms; Low: 46°F.
- Thursday: 80% chance of morning rain; High: 58°F (falling).
- Friday: Sunny; High: 65°F / Low: 39°F.
- Saturday: Sunny; High: 75°F / Low: 54°F.
- Sunday: 30% chance of showers; High: 75°F / Low: 49°F.
- Monday: 60% chance of rain; High: 58°F / Low: 31°F.
- Tuesday: Mostly sunny; High: 51°F / Low: 35°F.
North Georgia Mountains Seven-Day Forecast:
- Wednesday Night: 90% chance of rain; Low: 39°F.
- Thursday: 80% chance of morning rain; High: 51°F.
- Friday: Sunny; High: 60°F / Low: 31°F.
- Saturday: Sunny; High: 70°F / Low: 46°F.
- Sunday: 20% chance of showers; High: 67°F / Low: 40°F.
- Monday: 80% chance of rain; High: 52°F / Low: 22°F.
- Tuesday: Mostly sunny; High: 44°F / Low: 26°F.
The weekend and week ahead
What's next:
Following a calm and sunny Friday and Saturday, the FOX 5 Storm Team is tracking another cold front for Sunday into Monday. This next system will usher in an even more intense cold snap, with temperatures expected to dive into the 20s by Tuesday night, raising significant concerns for a mid-week freeze.