Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for North Georgia: Damaging winds, tornado risk tonight

Monday evening forecast

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the Georgia-Alabama line until 11 p.m. as the FOX 5 Storm Team tracks damaging winds, hail, and a midweek return to record-breaking 80-degree heat.

ATLANTA - A line of severe thunderstorms is marching into Georgia this evening, bringing the threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes to the western part of the state before tracking through the Atlanta metro area. The FOX 5 Storm Team is monitoring a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 11 p.m. as unseasonably warm temperatures fuel a turbulent start to the work week.

What we know:

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 11 p.m. EDT this evening for the following Georgia counties:

• Northwest Georgia: Carroll, Chattooga, Dade, Floyd, Haralson, Polk, and Walker.
• West Central Georgia: Heard and Troup.

According to the NWS, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather exists for much of west Georgia, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) extending as far east as Athens.

What they're saying:

FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologists are tracking the timing of these cells as they cross the state line. "Far western Georgia has been included in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 p.m. We're tracking a line of storms across the state of Alabama that will be capable of producing 60+ mph winds in Georgia between sunset and midnight," said FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Alex Forbes.

FOX 5 Storm Team Chief Meteorologist David Chandley noted the unseasonable warmth feeding the system. "Look at those temperatures. Look how warm that is. And you know we’ve got some moisture out there," Chandley said. "There’s the complex of thunderstorms... we’ll keep an eye on it as well into the evening hours and then, behind that, will be some tranquil weather."

Timeline:

The FOX 5 Storm Team expects the line of storms to push east-southeastward through the evening and overnight hours.

• 7 p.m. – 8 p.m.: Storms arrive in Northwest Georgia, impacting Floyd County and Rome.
• 9 p.m. – 10 p.m.: The line of storms moves across the Atlanta metro area.
• After Midnight: Storms transition into West Central Georgia and the southern suburbs.
• Tuesday Morning: Precipitation may linger in far North Georgia, but conditions should clear for the morning rush.

Big picture view:

According to the FOX 5 Storm Team, a shortwave moving through a quasi-zonal flow is maintaining a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). While there were questions about whether the complex would dissipate, model analysis shows a 70% to 90% probability of the storms remaining organized as they enter Georgia. The environment features modest lapse rates and enough shear to support organized storm segments. Unseasonably warm highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s—roughly 12 to 20 degrees above average—have provided the instability necessary for these storms to persist.

Local perspective

The greatest impacts are expected near the Alabama/Georgia state line. The FOX 5 Storm Team warns that a quick inch of rain or more is possible as the complex moves through, which could lead to street flooding or localized flash flooding. While the system is expected to weaken as it moves south and east of the Atlanta metro, isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible through Athens. In the mountains, Blairsville may see a secondary pulse of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Why you should care:

The primary hazards with this system include isolated damaging wind gusts, large hail exceeding one inch in diameter, and a low-end chance for a tornado or two along the leading edge of the line. Residents should be prepared for potential power outages, downed trees, and hazardous travel conditions during the overnight hours.

By the numbers:

The FOX 5 Storm Team is forecasting the following temperatures and precipitation chances:

Metro Atlanta

• Monday Night: Low 61° | 60% chance of rain
• Tuesday: High 78°, Low 63° | 40% chance of rain
• Wednesday: High 83°, Low 53° | 80% chance of rain (overnight)
• Thursday: High 61°, Low 41° | 80% chance of rain
• Friday: High 67°, Low 46° | 0% chance of rain
• Saturday: High 76°, Low 53° | 0% chance of rain
• Sunday: High 79°, Low 51° | 30% chance of rain

North Georgia (Blairsville)

• Monday Night: Low 56° | 60% chance of rain
• Tuesday: High 75°, Low 60° | 60% chance of rain
• Wednesday: High 79°, Low 43° | 90% chance of rain (overnight)
• Thursday: High 56°, Low 32° | 80% chance of rain
• Friday: High 65°, Low 39° | 0% chance of rain
• Saturday: High 73°, Low 46° | 0% chance of rain
• Sunday: High 74°, Low 43° | 20% chance of rain

What's next:

The FOX 5 Storm Team expects a brief period of "tranquil weather" following tonight's system, but the warmth will intensify. Temperatures on Wednesday could reach the mid-80s or even 90 degrees in Central Georgia, potentially threatening daily records. However, a strong cold front is forecast to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures are expected by Friday.