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Monday night forecast
Periods of heavy rain will move through the region tomorrow with an isolated flood threat for areas south of Interstate 20, according to the local storm team forecast.
ATLANTA - A powerful surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf is moving into North Georgia and the metro area, triggering a multiday heavy rainfall event that threatens widespread localized flash flooding through the end of the week.
Widespread rain coming
What we know:
Deep moisture lifting northward will establish an unsettled weather pattern over the state. No active severe weather watches or warnings are in effect for the area at this time, though conditions remain fluid. While severe weather risks are currently low, continuous rain over a long duration creates a localized flash flooding threat.
FOX 5 Storm Team insights
What they're saying:
FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Jonathan Stacey urged residents to prepare for a steady deluge rather than sudden severe threats.
"My main concern is flash flooding, especially to the south of Interstate 20," Stacey noted.
Forecasters point out that Tuesday will offer a strange break from standard summertime weather, explaining, "Keep in mind tomorrow we're not expecting thunderstorm activity... generally throughout the day we're just looking at hours and hours of rain building up".
However, changes follow by midweek as daytime clearing recharges the atmosphere: "We're going to actually bring back some sunshine... and I think we'll be able to get some electricity going with some of those storms... for Wednesday."
Timing the downpours
Timeline:
A slow-moving weather system will alter travel and outdoor conditions in distinct waves over the next few days:
- Overnight into early Tuesday: Thick cloud cover will blanket the sky as temperatures dip into the high 60s, with tropical rain arriving in far southern counties well before sunrise.
- Tuesday morning and afternoon: Heavy, steady rain will march across areas south of I-20, affecting communities from Troup County out to Butts, Jasper, and Putnam counties. The northern metro and mountain regions will experience softer showers or remain dry early on.
- Tuesday evening commute: Pockets of heavy showers will persist through the evening travel rush, though a temporary lull is expected as residents head to bed.
- Wednesday morning and afternoon: Thick morning fog will give way to developing sunshine and shifting winds out of the south and west, sparking scattered, electrical afternoon thunderstorms.
- Thursday and Friday: The highest probabilities for rain and storms shift into northern Georgia, giving communities north of Atlanta their best opportunity for rain.
Direct Gulf connection
Big picture view:
A weak area of low pressure and an associated tropical wave over the Gulf of Mexico are steering a direct river of moisture into the Southeast. While new forecast models show this cluster of tropical energy trying to lift up and over the I-20 corridor, the primary focus for the heaviest, most persistent rainfall will remain pinned to the southern half of the local area during the first 48 hours of the event.
Heaviest rain south
Local perspective:
Rainfall totals will vary dramatically between northern and southern counties over the next two days. The city of Atlanta sits on the northern edge of the heaviest bands and can expect generally around an inch of rainfall, with slightly higher totals possible in localized downpours. Meanwhile, communities situated south of the metro area are vulnerable to persistent, training rain bands that could easily dump localized amounts of two to three inches.
Flooding and travel
Why you should care:
Sustained rainfall over several hours will quickly saturate local soils, leading to water ponding on roadways and an elevated risk of rapid flash flooding in low-lying or poorly drained areas south of I-20. While the Tuesday evening commute should avoid a widespread severe mess, visibility will be significantly reduced in heavy pockets of rain. Looking further ahead, sports fans and commuters should closely monitor updates for the second scheduled FIFA game match, as an incoming tropical wave threatens to turn the skies stormy late in the week.
Regional seven day
By the numbers:
Thick clouds will hold temperatures well below normal on Tuesday before a humid, seasonal warm-up returns.
Metro Atlanta Forecast:
- Tuesday: High 76°. Hours of steady rain, potentially tying the record for the coolest June 16th high temperature.
- Wednesday: High in the low 80s. Morning fog followed by afternoon sunshine and a passing thunderstorm.
- Thursday: High in the mid-80s. Scattered afternoon showers and tropical storms.
- Friday: High in the mid-80s. Numerous tropical showers and storm chances.
- Saturday: High in the upper 80s. Scattered seasonal afternoon thunderstorms.
- Sunday: High in the upper 80s. Typical summer mix of sun and stray storms.
- Monday: High in the 80s. Continued chances for scattered rain showers.
North Georgia Forecast:
- Tuesday: High in the low 70s. Mostly cloudy with isolated, soft morning showers.
- Wednesday: High in the upper 70s. Morning fog followed by partly cloudy skies and scattered storms.
- Thursday: High in the low 80s. Increased rain opportunities with afternoon storms.
- Friday: High in the low 80s. High storm probabilities via incoming tropical wave.
- Saturday: High in the mid-80s. Passing mountain showers and thunderstorms.
- Sunday: High in the mid-80s. Partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain.
- Monday: High in the 80s. Scattered seasonal showers to start the week.
Unsettled spring finale
What's next:
Tuesday's initial round of steady rain will lift away late tomorrow night, providing a brief lull in the wet weather before humidity spikes on Wednesday. Attention quickly turns to Thursday and Friday as an organized tropical wave pushes inland. This tropical system will ensure a highly energetic, stormy conclusion to the final full week of spring across all of North Georgia and the metro area.