Rainy Sunday in North Georgia before warm-up

ATLANTA - Enjoy the mild Saturday afternoon while it lasts. According to FOX 5 Meteorologist Alex Forbes, a significant shift in the weather pattern moves in tonight, bringing a 100% chance of rain Sunday before a record-challenging warm-up takes over next week.

North Georgia rain

What we know:

Despite the clouds, temperatures remained unseasonably warm Saturday. "Even though our average high temperature for this time of year is 58, we’re seeing 61 today in Canton, 60 over in Gainesville, 63 in Athens, and in Eatonton 62," Forbes noted. "Newnan and Griffin are at 64, and 61 in Dalton through the afternoon hours today."

For those with late Valentine's Day plans, the rain is expected to hold off until the overnight hours. Forbes expects scattered shower activity to arrive around 9 or 10 p.m., lifting toward the north and east.

The bulk of the activity arrives Sunday in two distinct phases:

• Morning surge: Sunday morning brings steady rain and the potential for thunder. "You see some oranges and reds in there; we're not necessarily looking for strong storms, but don’t be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two," Forbes said. He noted that the primary severe weather threat will likely remain south of Columbus and Macon.

• Afternoon lull: A second, lighter wave arrives for the late afternoon and early evening hours. While not as heavy as the morning downpours, it will keep the region damp before clearing out late Sunday night.

Drought continues across North Georgia

Local perspective:

While the rain will be widespread, it may not provide the relief needed for Georgia's ongoing dry spell. Most areas are looking at totals between a quarter to three-quarters of an inch.

"It would not surprise me to see a 'rogue' one-inch total over toward Athens, up toward Dawson County, or over toward Rome," Forbes explained. "However, that’s not going to be widespread by any stretch, which means we’re not necessarily going to be able to put a big dent in this drought situation we have over North and Central Georgia—particularly in Eastern Georgia."

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows approximately 98% of the state is currently experiencing drought conditions, with extreme drought (D3) expanding in South Georgia.

The silver lining for holiday travelers is a bone-dry forecast for the start of the work week. Forbes confirms that the region will be dry for both President’s Day and Mardi Gras. The real story is the consistency of the upcoming warmth.

7-day outlook

What's next:

"Tomorrow's rain will eventually lead into the low-to-mid 70s by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday," Forbes said. "It feels like it’s been a long time since we’ve been able to do that with any consistency."

• Sunday: 100% chance of rain. Heavy at times with a stray rumble of thunder. High: 62.
• Monday – Wednesday: Completely dry. Expect clouds to build back in Wednesday.
• Thursday – Friday: Low-end rain chances (20%) with spring-like highs in the mid-70s.