Georgia snow threat: Models hint at weekend winter weather

ATLANTA - Temperatures will plunge on Thursday morning, setting up a one-two punch of winter weather threats across Georgia this weekend.

While light snow is possible in the mountains Friday night, a second, more uncertain system could bring snow or a rain-snow mix to parts of metro Atlanta and Central Georgia by Sunday morning.

Weekend winter threat uncertain

What we know:

A strong cold front is sweeping through Georgia, bringing gusty winds and frigid temperatures that will linger through the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. While the immediate focus is on mountain snow flurries and dangerous wind chills Thursday morning, the FOX 5 Storm Team is closely watching a second system arriving late Saturday.

Confidence in the Sunday forecast remains low, but latest data suggests a shift toward a potential winter event. Forecasters noted that about 40 percent of recent model simulations show a swath of winter weather across southern and central Georgia, with 20 percent bringing that threat into North Georgia.

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Snow threat for Georgia

What they're saying:

FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Alex Forbes said Wednesday evening that while "the cold air will be in place," questions remain regarding available moisture.

"The modeling with this has been all over the place, which is somewhat normal with systems like these," Forbes said. "Yesterday, the models backed off almost completely from seeing any winter weather. Now, some are starting to get back on board."

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Snow storm weather models

What we don't know:

Forbes cautioned residents against relying on various maps circulating on social media, noting he is instead monitoring ensemble models that run multiple scenarios.

"There’s a distinct possibility, if not a likelihood, that nothing happens," Forbes added. "We are at the mercy of the models, which typically don’t handle events like this well until about 24-48 hours out."

Showers and snow showers chance

By the numbers:

The following figures represent the latest forecasts for the mountain region and the metro Atlanta area:

North Georgia Mountains

• Friday: High of 44; 50 percent chance of rain and snow showers at night with a low of 29.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny, high of 41; low of 16 at night.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny, high of 30; low of 13 at night.
• MLK Day: Sunny, high of 39; low of 15 at night.

Metro Atlanta

• Friday: Sunny, high of 52; 40 percent chance of showers after 1 a.m. with a low of 38.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny, high of 49; low of 25 at night.
• Sunday: Sunny, high of 38; low of 22 at night.
• MLK Day: Sunny, high of 45; low of 24 at night.

When will the weather turn?

Dig deeper:

The first shift begins Friday night into Saturday morning as a cold front brings light rain to the region and possible snow to the higher elevations. The more significant window for potential winter weather opens late Saturday night and lasts through Sunday morning. Forbes noted that the forecast should become clearer by Friday night.

What areas are most at risk?

Local perspective:

If a winter storm develops, current data suggests the better chance for precipitation is south of Interstate 20. Forbes said any impacts would likely follow a "gradient south to north." For the Friday night system, snow is primarily limited to the North Georgia mountains, specifically in areas above 2,000 feet.

How much accumulation is expected?

Big picture view:

Accumulation potential for the Friday mountain snow is very limited, ranging from a trace to 0.5 inches on the highest peaks. For the potential Sunday system, meteorologists have not yet released specific totals due to "very low confidence" in the storm’s track. However, Forbes warned that "significant impacts will be possible in metro Atlanta and Central Georgia early Sunday" if the snow materializes.

Preparing for winter weather

What you can do:

Here are several ways to prepare now for potential winter weather:

• Stock essential supplies: Refresh batteries and flashlights, and ensure you have enough shelf-stable food and necessary prescriptions on hand.
• Prepare for service disruptions: Be ready for temporary loss of internet and cell service, particularly in wooded areas prone to storm damage.
• Protect your plumbing: Insulate outdoor pipes and locate your main water shut-off valve; frozen plumbing issues typically peak in January and February.
• Prioritize heating safety: Ensure generators, fireplaces and space heaters are properly vented. Never operate a generator in an enclosed space due to carbon monoxide risks.
• Stay informed digitally: Download the  FOX 5 Storm Team weather app and enable location settings to receive direct emergency notifications.
• Monitor local closings: Bookmark the FOX 5 Atlanta closings page for updates. Administrators should register their organizations now to ensure eligibility for posting cancellations.
• Care for animals: Bring pets indoors during freezing temperatures and provide outdoor animals with shelter and fresh, unfrozen water.
• Equip your vehicle: Assemble a car kit with blankets, chargers, a small shovel, snacks and sand or kitty litter for traction.
• Maintain safety detectors: Test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors and replace batteries before increasing the use of heaters and fireplaces.
• Check on neighbors: Coordinate with elderly residents, people with disabilities or those using powered medical equipment to create a plan for power outages.

Cold here to stay

What's next:

Beyond the weekend, the cold is here to stay. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach only 36 in the mountains and 43 in Atlanta.

Dry air moving into the state will also trigger fire safety concerns. Relative humidity values could drop below 25 percent on Monday and Tuesday, which may prompt Fire Danger Statements from the National Weather Service. Conditions are expected to begin moderating by Wednesday, with highs returning to the upper 40s.