LIVE | Georgia snow forecast: Light flurries tonight, snow threat Saturday night

ATLANTA - Are we actually going to see snow this weekend? That’s the big question as the FOX 5 Storm Team tracks a winter weather system moving into Georgia that’s threatening to bring a messy mix of rain and snow to our area.

While the exact path of the storm remains a "forecast headache," meteorologists warn that even a slight shift in the track could change who sees white flurries and who just gets wet.

Cold air, moisture in metro Atlanta

What we know:

A cold front moving in from the Tennessee Valley Friday night will bring the first wave of activity, primarily in the form of scattered rain showers. However, as moisture flows in from the Gulf and meets a blast of cold air, the potential for wintry precipitation increases late Saturday night into Sunday.

"It’s going to be cold," said FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Alex Forbes. "And then you got to factor in that moisture that we get in from the Gulf. How far north is it going to come?"

While most of the metro Atlanta area will see temperatures above freezing overnight Friday, the real chill arrives Sunday. Georgia Power has already signaled they are monitoring the situation, stating they are "ready for the cold weather and anything that happens."

Any snow coming soon to metro Atlanta?

Dig deeper:

Forecasters are currently looking at two scenarios: a "low-end" event where most areas see nothing, and a "high-end" event where a half-inch to an inch of snow could accumulate.

• Atlanta: The low-end expectation is nothing. However, Forbes notes there is a "world where we could pick up maybe a half inch of snow" if the freezing line shifts further north.
• Middle Georgia: Towns like Eatonton, Madison, and Lagrange have a better chance of seeing flakes. "I’m expecting maybe a half inch of snow down there in Putnam County," Forbes said, noting that is on the high end of the forecast.
• The "Unlikely" Spike: While statistically unlikely, some forecast models show a slim possibility of 2 to 3 inches in isolated parts of Middle Georgia, south of Macon.

SEE ALSO: Polar vortex to fuel dangerous spread of arctic air as coldest temperatures will linger over US for weeks

Snow accumulation in Georgia

Local perspective:

The current "line in the sand" for snow seekers is the I-85 corridor. FOX 5 Storm Team meteorgolosit Alex Forbes reports a higher degree of confidence for accumulating snow south of this line on Sunday.

"Up to 1 inch of snow will be possible in places like Upson, Monroe, Baldwin, Jones, Putnam, Jasper, Morgan, and Madison Counties," Forbes said. While he is not currently expecting snow in Metro Atlanta, he warns residents not to let their guard down. "Any slight shift in the forecast could implicate the Metro and millions of people."

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Weekend winter weather

Timeline:

• Friday Night: Rain moves into northwest Georgia. A light rain/snow mix is possible in the far northern mountains (above 2,000 feet).
• Saturday Morning: Scattered showers (30% chance) mainly before 8 a.m. in Atlanta. Highs reach near 53 degrees.
• Saturday Night: Temperatures drop. Rain transitions to a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 4 a.m.
• Sunday Morning: The best window for snow. Transition to wintry mix or wet snow is expected around sunrise, primarily south and east of a line from Columbus to Griffin to Madison.
• Sunday Afternoon: The system exits, leaving behind clear but very cold air.

Wintry mix possible?

Big picture view:

The FOX 5 Storm Team emphasizes that the "precipitation shield" will encounter strong cold air as it moves through. In North Georgia, any accumulation in the mountains could cause travel difficulties, though significant impacts are not expected. For Middle Georgia, the question remains whether warm southerly flow will keep the environment too warm for snow to stick, or if the "reinforcing feedback" of falling snow will cool the air enough to create a broader footprint of accumulation.

North Georgia weather forecast

By the numbers:

Metro Atlanta:

• Sunday: Mostly sunny, high 40. West winds gusting to 20 mph.
• M.L. King Day: Sunny, high 47. Low 21.
• Tuesday: Sunny and cold, high 40. Low 23.
• Wednesday: Mostly sunny, high 52.
• Thursday: A 20% chance of showers, high 56.

North Georgia Mountains:

• Sunday: High 33. Low 18.
• M.L. King Day: High 40. Low 11.
• Tuesday: High 35. Low 17.

 A bitterly cold start to the week

What's next:

Once the weekend system clears out, the story shifts from precipitation to "dangerously dry" cold. Monday through Wednesday will remain dry, but relative humidity is expected to "tank," prompting concerns for fire danger on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds pick up. Temperatures will struggle to rebound, staying well below average until a slight warming trend and a return of rain chances on Thursday.

What does wintry mix mean?

The backstory:

To help you navigate the forecast, here is a breakdown of the most common winter terms:

• Snowfall: This occurs when the entire atmosphere, from the clouds down to the ground, remains at or below freezing (32°F). Snowflakes are collections of ice crystals that cling together as they fall.
• Graupel (Snow Pellets): Often mistaken for hail or "Dippin' Dots," graupel forms when supercooled water droplets coat a snowflake, creating a soft, opaque, and crushable pellet. Unlike hard ice, graupel will easily disintegrate if you touch it.
• Sleet (Ice Pellets): Sleet starts as snow, melts into rain in a warm layer of air aloft, and then refreezes into hard ice pellets before hitting the ground. You’ll know it’s sleet because it bounces when it hits your windshield or the pavement.
• Freezing Rain: This is perhaps the most "sinister" type of weather, according to FOX 5 reporting. It falls as liquid rain but freezes instantly upon contact with surfaces that are at or below freezing. This creates a glaze of ice on trees, power lines, and roads.
• Ice Storm: Per the National Weather Service, an official "Ice Storm" occurs when freezing rain results in at least 1/4 inch of ice accumulation. This is the threshold where significant damage to trees and power lines typically begins.
• Icy Roads: These occur when any form of frozen precipitation—sleet, freezing rain, or melted/refrozen snow—bonds to the pavement. Freezing rain is particularly dangerous because it creates "Black Ice," a transparent coating that makes the road look merely wet when it is actually a skating rink.
• Snow Flurries vs. Showers: FOX 5 Atlanta defines flurries as light snow falling for short durations with little to no accumulation. Snow showers, however, fall at varying intensities and are more likely to leave a dusting or coating on the ground.

These are not all the terms that may be used this weekend.

Preparing for snow

What you can do:

Here are some things you can do now to prepare:

• Restock emergency supplies. Check flashlights and batteries, and buy shelf-stable food. Ensure all prescriptions are filled, as ice storms often cause power outages.
• Prepare for communication outages. Internet and cellphone service may fail, particularly in heavily wooded areas prone to storm damage.
• Winterize plumbing. Insulate outdoor pipes and locate the main water shutoff valve. Frozen pipe incidents are most common in January and February.
• Use heaters safely. Inspect generators, fireplaces and space heaters to ensure proper venting. Never run a generator indoors; doing so creates a risk of fatal carbon monoxide poisoning.
• Test detectors. Check smoke and carbon monoxide detectors. Replace batteries before increasing the use of heaters or fireplaces.
• Check on neighbors. Contact older residents, people with disabilities or those using powered medical equipment to establish an assistance plan.
• Protect animals. Bring pets inside during freezing temperatures. Ensure livestock and outdoor animals have shelter and unfrozen water.
• Pack a car kit. If travel is necessary, keep blankets, chargers, a shovel, snacks and sand or kitty litter for traction in the vehicle.
• Stay informed. Download the FOX 5 Storm Team weather app  and enable notifications for real-time updates.
• Monitor closings. Check the FOX 5 Atlanta closings page for school and business updates. Administrators should verify their registration status to post updates quickly.