ATLANTA - A poll of 745 early and likely voters, conducted by Opinion Savvy, in the March 1 Georgia GOP presidential primary shows Donald Trump with a 12 point lead just a week prior to primary date. Marco Rubio leads Ted Cruz by a slim margin in the fight for second place.
In the Democratic contest, also to be held March 1, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead of 28 points over Bernie Sanders. The poll surveyed 491 early and likely Democratic voters. Both surveys were conducted by IVR phone and handheld devices. They are weighted for age, race, and gender. The Republican survey has a margin of error of 3.6 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.
The Democratic survey has a margin of error of 4.4 percent and also a 95 percent confidence level.
- Trump - 34
- Rubio - 22
- Cruz - 20
- Kasich - 9
- Carson - 8
- Undecided - 7
- Clinton - 57
- Sanders - 29
- Undecided - 14
FOX 5 Political Analyst Matt Towery says:
"On the Republican side, the race seem to mirror the vote in South Carolina. Once again, Trump leads Cruz among evangelicals and leads among older voters, with Rubio leading among the youngest of voters and Trump right behind him.
On the Democratic side, Clinton has a huge lead among African-American voters and older Democrats. Sanders is winning the age 30-44 contest but by just a few points. The youngest of voters (18-29) are going Sanders by a wide margin.
But in both races, absent a major event that could change minds, both Trump and Clinton appear headed to a victory in Georgia.
Trump voters are the most committed and a good number have early voted. It should be noted however, that since Jeb Bush appears on the ballot, he may still receive or has already received votes that might lower the various candidates' final percentages. That would likely assist Mr. Cruz in an attempt to take second place given that many Bush supporters are expected to move to the Rubio camp. However, the impact should be negligible.
Clinton seems to have the battle locked up. Again, absent some major unexpected issue, Georgia will serve as part of her true "firewall" against Sanders. This survey also likely bodes well for the South Carolina Democratic contest this week. The two states have very similar demographics."