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FOX 5 Poll: Trump leads GA, Isakson avoids runoff

Published  November 4, 2016 11:46pm EDT
News
FOX 5 Atlanta

ATLANTA - A new poll in Georgia shows Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump leading in the state, U.S. Senate incumbent Johnny Isakson will just narrowly avoid a runoff for another term, and Amendment One will likely be defeated.

The Opinion Savvy survey conducted for FOX 5 Atlanta and Morris Communications Newspapers show Trump leading Clinton in Georgia by four points. The poll of 538 likely and early voters in Georgia conducted by Opinion Savvy the evening of November 4 also indicates Amendment One related to state intervention in assisting underperforming public schools is headed towards a potentially substantial defeat. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

Here is a look at the results:

President:

  • Trump: 49 percent
  • Clinton: 45 percent
  • Johnson: 5 percent
  • Undecided: 1 percent

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Senate:

  • Isakson: 50 percent
  • Barksdale: 39 percent
  • Buckley: 8 percent
  • Undecided: 3 percent

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Amendment One:

  • Yes: 32 percent
  • No: 63 percent
  • Undecided: 5 percent

FOX 5 Political Analyst Matt Towery said even though a Trump victory is likely in Georgia, the separation between Trump and Hillary Clinton remains within the poll's margin of error. “He is carrying both north Georgia and trails Clinton in immediate metro Atlanta. Trump leads among voters over the age of 45, with younger voters leaning towards Clinton. Independent voters are with Trump and with only one percent of voters likely saying they are undecided it seems probable that Trump will carry Georgia, barring a last minute major new development in the race,” Towery said.

Towery continued, “The fact that Georgia is not in play is made all the more obvious when one examines the degree to which the candidates are avoiding spending time or money in the state. Most polls of Georgia give an edge to Trump in recent days.”

“Sen. Isakson is running ahead of Mr. Barksdale in Georgia and appears headed to a victory without a runoff. The Libertarian candidate, Allen Buckley, is running stronger than expected, but Mr. Buckley has run statewide before and thus enjoys more name recognition than his party's nominee for president. That said, I expect, based on past patterns, Buckley's numbers to end up closer to the 5 percent range,” said Towery. “Undecided voters at this stage of the process either don't vote or end up voting at about the same ratio as the vote for the various candidates who are polled. That should mean Isakson will likely win by a reasonably comfortable margin.”

On the issue of Amendment One, Towery said “[It] appears headed to a rather decisive defeat. The amendment is not only losing with Democrats but with conservative Republicans. The anti-amendment forces swamped the airwaves early with ads leaving the pro-amendment forces playing catch up in what is clearly an anti-government electoral environment. It would be nothing shy of a miracle for the measure to pass.”

For more results from the poll visit opinionsavvy.com.